Recession to end in 2009

Hopefully, we economists are better at predicting the end of the recession than the beginning of it:

The panel of 45 economists said it expects economic growth will rebound in the second half of 2009. However, the group still expects to see a decline in second-quarter economic activity.

The panel forecast a total of 4.5 million jobs lost in 2009, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.8%. Modest gains in 2010 will reduce the rate to 9.3% by year’s end, the report predicted.

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7 Responses to “Recession to end in 2009”


  1. 1 Matthew Davis June 27, 2009 at 5:45 PM

    Hopes that an economic turnaround is soon eminent fades as our nations unemployment rate climbs daily. More and more Americans are losing jobs daily digging the U.S. economy deeper into a historical recession. Is throwing billions of dollars back into the economy really the solution? At what point are we looking at massive inflation and government indebtedness? Consumers must gain confidence in our nations economy, and spur on growth and opportunity. Until the banking institutions get healthy and loan money again, our economy will continue to worsen daily. While residential housing continues to struggle, it is the commercial market which is experiencing historical lows and commercial foreclosures are occurring at an alarming rate. We need the banking institutions to rise again. Throwing billions at GM and Ford is not the solution to solving our economic woes.

  2. 2 Tanisha/ Econ 100 July 9, 2009 at 12:59 PM

    It’s hard to predict anything. How can you expect economic growth in 2009 when we are doing so poorly? How can you expect growth when you expect to see a decline in economic activity? It makes no since. I won’t be getting my hopes up, but I’ll wish for the best. A 9.8% drop to 9.3% is something, but it’s not enough. This percentage can easily shoot back up and beyond 9.8% at any given time when the economy is unstable.

  3. 3 Abby August 3, 2009 at 6:27 PM

    As we enter August, unemployment has begun to decrease a little, but is still persistently high. Ford posted an increase in sales, but GM, Chrysler, Honda, and Toyota all suffered losses. New home sales were up, but new home median prices dropped and existing home sales are terrible. From the basic statistics, we get a sense of hope from small sectors, but when looking at the entire picture, the economy still looks dim.

    Aside from top economists’ predictions and promising data, I’d rather not hope for recovery or dread a depression. Why? Because the economy is inherently unpredictable, despite strong signals and educated opinions.

  4. 4 wongt August 5, 2009 at 11:19 AM

    I seriously doubt the end of the recession to come so soon. The slight improvements that are seen are normal fluctuations while everyone else are experiencing losses. It some a good amount of time for the economy to get into this mess, so I doubt that it will rebound this quickly despite all the educated opinions.

  5. 5 Jessica Schimke August 6, 2009 at 2:15 AM

    I hope the recession ends by the end of this year, but the current conditions do not seem to suggest that this will be the case. High unemployment still plagues us and hopes are still down. I am still trying to keep positive thoughts about the near future, especially since I am graduating from Berkeley in the fall and will be relocating to another state with my boyfriend and plan on purchasing a home. Ideally, we’ll buy the home while prices are still suffering, and acquire my ideal job as the recession comes to an end.

  6. 6 E. Speizer August 6, 2009 at 2:56 PM

    All I know is that I’m happy to be a student during the recession. For those having just graduated in the past year or two, jobs won’t be easy to come by. I’m lucky that I’m a student and don’t need a job yet to support myself. It’s looking like by the time I graduate in college in 2-3 years, the economy should be in better shape and it should be easier to get a well paying job.

  7. 7 Maricar De Los Reyes August 6, 2009 at 6:19 PM

    Any speckle of hope is always a nice thing to hear. But we should heed warnings as well as suggestions to how we can help our economy rise. The video related to this blog was pretty helpful. They argued both sides on spending, but as well as saving. I just think Americans need to learn how to balance their spending and saving. When there’s an influx of money and overconfidence in our country’s economic strength, we tend to spend what we don’t have and not save enough. But when the country is in danger of going into a depression, we save up as much as we can and not circulate anything. I think we should all find out how to balance the best of both worlds. Of course, we should always be careful with the statistics and facts. They can be at times biased. So the more we know about both sides, the more we can reason for ourselves and decide what would be the best outcome for ourselves.


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