Unemployment Forecasting

Greg Mankiw provides us with a graph on unemployment. One reason I like it is because it illustrates just how difficult forecasting is:

unempdataaugust

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8 Responses to “Unemployment Forecasting”


  1. 1 alanna heaney September 8, 2009 at 7:05 AM

    Well I thought unemployment went down since Obama went into office at least little bit but his team of people are lying to us and telling us a different rate when the real rate is way higher. It’s weird from June to August it went up and down really high. I thought a lot more corporations hiring people and people were getting jobs, but it’s a tough world out there and people aren’t getting the jobs they need. I wouldn’t know what to do if I didn’t have a job and I had family to raise it is probably the most stressful thing in the world.

  2. 2 D. Colin Sorenson September 10, 2009 at 8:02 AM

    There are a lot of factors for this employment downfall, the biggest being the economy. Other factors affect it as well, including technology. While people are trying to get their jobs back or find new jobs, companies are trying to find the best way to manufacture their goods for a lower cost. If 10 people with new technology can do the same amount of work as 15 people with out the new technology for a lower cost, businesses will be jumping all over that possibility. Althought the dynamic growth in technology is quite pleasant for our homes, the employment deficit is going to cripple our economy.

  3. 3 Alexandria Horton September 15, 2009 at 7:16 AM

    Wow, it is sad to see that we really don’t have a choice no matter what our government tries to do. I am one of the unemployed out there, by choice, but my boyfriend is trying so hard to find a job even at minimum wage and has not been succesful. It has been almost 3 months of walk-in and online applications and still no luck. I am joining the ARMY in February and while I was going through the enlistment process I overheard alot of people talking about how they are getting very picky about who they let in, because with the unemployment rate so high everyone is trying to get in. Fortunately, they don’t just let anyone in because not everyone is cut out for it. It does seem like that is the only steady job one can find out there. Previous to all this I was a waitress and just one year ago I was making twice as much as I did just before I quit so you can see that this is only getting worse. If I wouldn’t have quit I probably would lose my job eventually because I know that restaurant isn’t going to last much longer without profit. And then there goes 20 more people unemployed just like that.

  4. 4 Gina September 15, 2009 at 7:34 AM

    This graph shows the reality of peoples lives. My mom is has received a lay-off notice and is currently looking for another job. It has been very hard on her and my family because it is so difficult to find anything.

  5. 5 Kirstie Scott October 16, 2009 at 1:23 PM

    This graph does a good job of illustrating how difficult if it to predict the future. I don’t think that anyone thought that unemployment would be this high right now. At the same time I am not a democrat but I do think that we need to give President Obama’s plan more time to pan out.

  6. 6 Kali Hardcastle November 17, 2009 at 7:55 PM

    its almost frustrating to look at a graph like this and not know exactly how it can be fixed. it just makes me realize that the amount of unemployment cannot be truly predicted. there are also going to be many other factors affecting this as well considering how complex, intricate, and interdependent our society is that even with a recovery plan created by the government, the unemployment rate goes up, not down.

  7. 7 Anna Hernandez November 28, 2009 at 7:19 PM

    i am not quite sure why so many americans thought obama was going to be our country’s answer to all of our problems. he is only one man and can only do so much. as the months pass, it seems as if the number of the unemployed increases and employers are still taking advantage of this job market because there are an infinite number of applicants willing to accept lower wages compared to those they used to earn.

    employment and unemployment rates can always be forecasted but the data is not always right. commentators thought obama would help the country defeat the recession but one man has no control over the current situation. it is our job to offer more jobs and spend more money, then we can begin to see things turn.

  8. 8 Taylor Latt December 15, 2009 at 12:22 AM

    this graph shows the reality of predictions. they are merely guesstimates, and are meant to be looked at as that. it is interesting to see how far off those estimates are, however. and for Obama’s team to think they were going to be THAT successful goes to show how OVER-confident they were.


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