This blog is for discussing issues in our complex global economy.
Real Unemployment 18% – Will Stocks Falter?
It seems as if the unemployment rate gets higher and higher. I remember blogs saying unemployment was at 11 and 12 percent thinking that was high; now it’s at 18?! I personally know a lot of people who are educated and hard working who are out of a job and are still hoping for the best. When will the economy really get better though?
I liked how this article explained the “U” system for unemployment and how the U6 is the clearest picture of the state of our country’s unemployment. The graph comparing years was very sobering. I too know many people without jobs right now that have even been looking for about a year now. There is nothing out there. The jobs that they are finding, they don’t take because unemployment pays them more and even that is not enough. It is a very scary situation. The place where I am employed has fortunately not had any layoffs, but now they are talking about downsizing and layoffs in August. I have a feeling the unemployment rate will keep going up for a good while. I’m not sure what the answer is to make it level off and start going back down. Where are the jobs going to come from?
I cannot believe that the real unemployment rate is actually 18 percent. If the government wants to lower the unemployment rate they need to figure out a way to create jobs fast. But as jobs are being created, the unemployment rate may also increase. It is going to take a while for jobs to get back to were they were before the recession.
The unemployment rate is a reflection of our poor economy. If we are in an economic boom, the unemployment rate should be lower; however, during a bust it will be higher. My question is: how will we turn the economy around if the unemployment rate is almost 20%? These people are losing their homes and are living off the bare necessities. Our economy depends on these consumers to buy goods, but when in 5 people has no job they are probably not going to buy any luxury items like televisions, cars, or go to nice restaurants. It’s basically a domino effect. How can this be reversed?
I think there is a reason that the U-3 unemployment percentage is more openly let out to the public as opposed to the appalling U-6 figure; it is much lower and isn’t such a scary number to look at. One of the main factors to getting the economy even close to where it once was is the attitude of the nation. If people see such a large number, they will lose hope and not see a point in trying to better their situation. A number in the 9% is a lot more confortable and makes it sound like getting a job is more possible therefore causing people to try go out and look for a job.
Does it really matter what the “real” unemployment number is? What we all agree on is that it is too high. Now what to do, and how to change that? How can we create new jobs? How we can get the economy going? How we can create enough jobs for people who lost their jobs, and for all those who are new to the workplace? How about people who lost all their money, retirement, investments, and have been forced back to work? I think we are going to be in this mess for 5+ years before it works itself out. We can’t spend ourselves out of it, that is what got us in this mess to begin with!
That’s a big difference from 9.7 percent to 18 percent!!! It’s quiet difficult to forsee where and when this will end. Even at school I continue to hear of the lingering threat of hours cut for teachers, classes cut, early retirement offers. I feel very fortunate to be employed, but being that the industry I work in is state funded the field runs the risk of experiencing major cuts and that is always a concern. I here these types of things happen in cycles and that it has happened before and we will get out of it, but I can’t help but worry about how much we can take!!
I am shocked by the rate of unemployment in the US, it`s 18 percent! The rate of unemployment in my country has tended to decrease and less than 10 percent. I think the issue is serious. It`s getting harder for universiies graduates to find good jobs in Japan comapered to 5 years ago. So i guess here it is even more harder and the situation is more difficul.
I think the “U” system is very interesting, but why have it? What purpose is there in the U3 number if it isn’t showing the true, or as close to true as possible, percentage of unemployment. I guess it is good to see what factors are affecting unemployment, like adding in different levels of workers (discouraged, unemployed, part-time vs. full-time) but why not publish U6 as the “official” number. Maybe that would be too upsetting for the general public, to see that unemployment isn’t really decreasing as we thought it was. But now that I know the difference, I’ll be watching U6 as well.
Should we really care what the specific “employment number” is? We all know that the number is increasing high, but instead of worrying about a number, we should be focuses on how to fix the problem. How can we start creating the jobs lost? How can we start rebuilding our economy? I know a lot of people out of jobs right now and struggling to get by, its hard to be a college student trying to pay through college and have to worry about how your going to pay off all the bills with the employment rate a such a low.
I thought that this was a really good article. I had no idea that the government defined unemployment with U-3. I do not really know what I thought it was but it is crazy to think that the unemployment rate is actually 18% if you include everybody and that does not include everybody. This article went through and defined each of the unemployment rates which was very helpful. The only thing I would change is that I think that part time workers that want to be full time workers should not be included. At least they have some kind of job because some people have no job at all and are really suffering. The last couple lines of this article are completely terrifying. The fact that the stock is overvalued and will eventually hit a bottom that will really hurt us is scary to think especially when we just went through a really bad recession and are trying to be positive and get out of it. I hope the fall does not happen, at least for awhile.
It is refreshing to learn that the official unemployment rate reported by the news media may be an obstacle to see what is truly happening in the current economy. It is good to know that there is a clear difference between the official rate and U-6, which gives a more realistic picture of what is going on. 18% is very high, which means close to 1 out of 5 people in the US is not getting a full-time job they deserve. This is a figure every policymakers need to focus on, not the one reported by the media.
According to the article, about 1 in every 5 people is unemployed currently. Those numbers are devastating and explain the current economic recession we are battling. Im guessing that the economy will have to get worse before it can get any better, but the government needs to focus on creating jobs. The unemployment rate is a true indicator of the health of an economy, and ours must be very ill.
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