Posts Tagged 'carpe diem'

Real Estate Rebound

Mark Perry proves “why” the latest real estate numbers are positive:

MP: That’s one way to look at it. Here are some alternative views:

1. The April to May increases in median home prices (3.84%) and mean home prices (3.26%) were the largest monthly price increases in more than a year (data here).

2. The monthly May increase in both median home prices (3.84%) and homes sold (2.36%) was only the second time in at least a year that both prices and unit sales increased in the same month.

3. The back-to-back increase in home sales in both April and May is the first time in at least a year of two consecutive monthly increases.

4. The most recent two-month increase in sales of 4.84% is the largest since April 2004 (source).

5. The 9.6 months supply of inventory in May is below last year’s May level of 10.9 months by more than five weeks, and is at the second-lowest level in the last year.

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1st California Real Estate Gain Since August 2007

Carpe Diem has some great news for the California real estate market. It seems that California’s real estate has stabilized and is showing signs of life.

The March 2009 median price rose 2.2% compared with February’s $247,590 median price. “The statewide median price showed the first monthly increase since August 2007, and has remained in the $250,000 range over the past three months,” said C.A.R.’s Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “A number of regions around the state also have registered monthly gains for one or more months since the beginning of this year. While these are welcome signs, it remains to be seen whether home prices have stabilized.

Time to Buy or Refi

A chart from Carpe Diem:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rates are the lowest ever recorded. It’s a great time to refinance or buy a home.

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California’s Housing Market Works

Professor Perry at Carpe Diem hits a home-run:

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Bottom Line (from Prof Perry): The way the media reports it, you would think we were years away from a solid recovery in the real estate market, especially in states like California, when some of the housing data suggest otherwise. The 40.5% fall in California home prices is helping to stimulate home sales there, as the Law of Demand would predict.

Overall sales volume has increased in California by 20.5%, from $1.32 billion a year ago to $1.58 billion in January this year, the Inventory Index has decreased by almost 10 months, and the median number of days to sell a home decreased by almost 21 days. In other words, market forces are working in the California real estate market.

How to Lie about Job Losses

Obama and other politicians talk about losing 600k jobs per month. Is that close to what was lost in the depression? Since the workforce is much larger now, we can NOT use the number of jobs lost as we so often hear. In order to accurately compare different time periods, we MUST use percentages. Here a percent chart from Carpe Diem. As you can see, our current recession is exactly like ’81-82. It is not close to the depression.

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Housing Affordability at All-Time High

Carpe Diem has found some great news regarding housing:

Hopefully, the increase in housing affordability and new record-high will play an important role in the real estate market’s recovery. Interestingly, the record-high level of housing affordability has not yet been reported, or at least I couldn’t find a single news report on this topic.

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How to Lie with Statistics: Today’s Jobless Claims

Carpe Diem points out a great learning lesson. It appears jobless claims are at an all-time high. This is really not the case when you adjust for population growth. Although it’s not true, it does make a great headline.